Outlook and updating increases darren bent dating bruce
Markets expect prices to gradually decline over the next 4–5 years—as of mid-December, medium-term price futures stood at about per barrel, modestly higher than in August. Federal Reserve policy rates have shifted up since August, reflecting the well‑anticipated December rate hike, but they continue to price in a gradual increase over 20.
The increase in fuel prices raised headline inflation in advanced economies, but wage and core-price inflation remain weak. The Bank of England raised its policy rate for the first time since 2008 in view of diminishing slack in the economy and above‑target inflation driven by the past sterling depreciation; the European Central Bank announced that it will taper its net asset purchases starting in January.
Among advanced economies, growth in the third quarter of 2017 was higher than projected in the fall, notably in Germany, Japan, Korea, and the United States.
Key emerging market and developing economies, including Brazil, China, and South Africa, also posted third-quarter growth stronger than the fall forecasts.
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 13, 2017-December 11, 2017.
The current cyclical upswing provides a unique opportunity for structural and governance reforms.
Against a backdrop of common priorities, the optimal policy mix differs across countries depending on cyclical considerations and available policy space: remains vital to safeguard recent momentum in global activity, strengthen medium-term prospects, and ensure the benefits from technological progress and global economic integration are shared more widely.
3/ Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries. dollars a barrel was .7 in 2017; the assumed price based on futures markets (as of December 11, 2017) is .9 in 2018 and .4 in 2019.
4/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam. 6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services).