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Nber dating committee

In that hypothetical and unlikely event, the Committee would have to decide whether the new downturn counted as a second recession, or whether it should be considered part of the recession of 2007-09.

In the latter case, we would have made a mistake if we had already declared a trough in 2009. This is an excellent argument for waiting until we can answer that hypothetical question more definitively. Q: Would it be so bad if the Committee had to revise the date of the trough after the fact? We explain over and over that the role of the committee is to be definitive, not to be first, in calling turning points. Q: Yet you went public before he did, with your view that the recession was probably over. Q: What role did fiscal stimulus, if any, play in ending the recession, assumng the final determination is that it did indeed end sometime in 2009? True, the fiscal stimulus enacted February 2009 was not big enough to return us rapidly to full employment.

Q: Was the 2007-2009 recession the worst since the Great Depression? But by the various other measures — increase in unemployment rate, loss of jobs, loss of output, length of recession — the 2007-09 recession was indeed the worst since the Great Depression. that it had met in person April 8 – an infrequent event – but that it had not yet decided to call the trough in the recession that began in December 2007.The meeting has led to lots of questions from the that appeared today, and then more questions today in response to those stories.Incidentally, these days we pay at least as much attention to national income as to GDP in assessing growth; in theory the two should be the same, but in practice they are not.The labor market has lagged behind, as is common, but in October the total hours worked by the labor force began to increase again, followed more recently by employment.

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Sismondi's theory of periodic crises was developed into a theory of alternating cycles by Charles Dunoyer, and similar theories, showing signs of influence by Sismondi, were developed by Johann Karl Rodbertus.

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