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The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2016 provides the Treasury's latest economic forecasts and the forecast financial statements of the Government, including the implications of Government financial decisions.
HYEFU 2016 was published conjointly with the Budget Policy Statement (BPS) 2017.
An important component of this analysis is also identifying potential risks that could affect the economic and fiscal outlook, especially given heightened uncertainty on both a global and local scale.
New Zealand's trading partners are not growing as strongly as before, and this is expected to keep global inflation and import prices low.The Treasury prepares this to the best of our ability to help the Government to make the most fully informed decisions about policies, and support the Government's fiscal objectives of paying down debt and increasing the surplus.This examines recent developments and describes the current outlook for the New Zealand economy and Government's fiscal outlook.The Crown's forecast fiscal position will be subject to economic risks (noted below), market risks mainly associated with the Crown's balance sheet, and future policy decisions (discussed in the Specific Fiscal Risks chapter).Preliminary estimates, based on available information about known damage, suggest that the direct costs of the Kaikōura earthquakes could be between to billion, including operating expenses (eg, Earthquake Commission (EQC) claims costs) and capital expenditure (eg, rebuilding state highways).
As soon as this information is available this page will be updated to include the GFS fiscal tables.